The Cryosphere Discussions
www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net
1994-0432
1994-0440
1
1
2007
10.5194/tcd-1-123-2007
http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/1/123/2007/
http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/1/123/2007/tcd-1-123-2007.html
http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/1/123/2007/tcd-1-123-2007.pdf
123
168
2007-07-03
Reconstruction of the 1979–2006 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR
X. Fettweis
fettweis@astr.ucl.ac.be
Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Results from a 28-year simulation (1979–2006) over the Greenland ice sheet
(GIS) reveal an increase of the solid precipitation (+0.4±2.5 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−2</sup>) and the run-off (+7.9±3.3 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−2</sup>) of surface
melt water. The net effect of these competing factors leads to a significant
Surface Mass Balance (SMB) loss rate of −7.2±5.1 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−2</sup>.
The contribution of changes in the net water vapour fluxes (+0.02±0.09 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−2</sup>) and rainfall (+0.2±0.2 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−2</sup>) to
the SMB variability is negligible. The melt water supply has increased
because the GIS surface has been warming up +2.4°C since 1979. Latent
heat flux, sensible heat flux and net solar radiation have not varied
significantly over the last three decades. However, the simulated downward
infra-red flux has increased by 9.3 W m<sup>−2</sup> since 1979. The natural
climate variability (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation) does not explain
these changes on the GIS. The recent global warming, due to the greenhouse
gas concentration increase induced by the human activities, could be a cause
of these changes. The doubling of the surface melt water flux into the ocean
over the period 1979–2006 suggests that the overall ice sheet mass balance
has been increasingly negative, given the probable meltwater-induced outlet
glacier acceleration. This study suggests that an increased melting dominates
over an increased accumulation in a warming scenario and that the GIS would
likely continue to loose mass in the future. A GIS melting would have an
effect on the stability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) and the global
sea level rise.
Alley, R. B., Clark, P. U., Huybrechts, P., and Joughin, I.: ice sheet and sea-level changes, Science, 310, 456–460, 2005.
Appenzeller, C., Schwander, J., Sommer, S., and Stocker, T. F.: The North Atlantic Oscillation and its imprint on precipitation and ice accumulation in Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25(11), 1939–1942, 1998.
Box, J. E. and Steffen, K.: Sublimation estimates for the Greenland ice sheet using automated weather station observations, J. Geophys. Res., 106(D24), 33 965–33 982, 2001.
Box, J. E. and Rinke, A.: Evaluation of Greenland ice sheet surface climate in the HIRHAM regional climate model, J. Clim., 16, 1302–1319, 2003.
Box, J. E., Bromwich, D. H., and Bai, L.-S.:Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for 1991–2000: application of Polar MM5 mesoscale model and in-situ data, J. Geophys. Res., 109(D16), D16105, doi:10.1029/2003JD004451, 2004.
Box, J. E., Bromwich, D. H., Veenhuis, B. A., Bai, L.-S., Stroeve, J. C., Rogers, J. C., Steffen, K., Haran, T., and Wang, S.-H.: Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance variability (1988–2004) from calibrated Polar MM5 output, J. Climate, 19(12), 2783–2800, 2006.
Box, J. E. and Cohen, A. E.: Upper-air temperatures around Greenland: 1964–2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12706, doi:10.1029/2006GL025723, 2006.
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Haris, I., Tett, S. F. B., and Jones, P. D.: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548, 2006.
Bromwich, D. H., Chen, Q. S., Li, Y. F., and Cullather, R. I.: Precipitation over Greenland and its relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D18), 22 103–22 115, 1999.
Brun, E., David, P., Sudul, M., and Brunot, G.: A numerical model to simulate snowcover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forecasting, J. Glaciol., 38, 13–22, 1992.
Bugnion, V. and Stone, P. H.: Snowpack model estimates of the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and its changes over the twenty first century, Clim. Dyn., 20, 87–106, 2002.
Chen J. L., Wilson, C. R., and Tapley, B. D.: Satellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet, Science, 313, 1958–1960, doi:10.1126/science.1129007, 2006.
Chylek, P., Box, J. E., and Lesins, G.: Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet, Climatic Change, 63, 201–221, 2004.
Chylek, P. and Lohmann, U.: Ratio of the Greenland to global temperature change: Comparison of observations and climate modeling results, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L14705, doi:10.1029/2005GL023552, 2005.
Chylek, P., Dubey, M. K., and Lesins, G.: Greenland warming of 1920-1930 and 1995–2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L11707, doi:10.1029/2006GL026510, 2006.
Cogley, J. G.: Greenland accumulation: An error model, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D18101, doi:10.1029/2003JD004449, 2004.
De Ridder, K. and Gallée, H.: Land surface-induced regional climate change in Southern Israel, J. Appl. Meteorol., 37, 1470–1485, 1998.
Dethloff, K., Schwager, M., Christensen, J. H., Kiilsholm, S., Rinke, A., Dorn, W., Jung-Rothenhäusler, F., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., and Miller, H.: Recent Greenland accumulation estimated from regional model simulations and ice core ananlysis, J. Clim., 15, 2821–2832, 2002.
Dowdeswell, J.: The Greenland Ice Sheet and Global Sea-Level Rise, Science 17 February 2006, 311(5763), 963–964, doi:10.1126/science.1124190, 2006.
Fettweis, X., Gallée, H., Lefebre, L., and van Ypersele, J.-P.: Greenland surface mass balance simulated by a regional climate model and comparison with satellite derived data in 1990–1991, Clim. Dyn., 24, 623–640, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0010-y, 2005.
Fettweis, X., Gallée, H., Lefebre, L., and van Ypersele, J.-P.: The 1988–2003 Greenland ice sheet melt extent by passive microwave satellite data and a regional climate model, Clim. Dyn., 27(5), 531–541, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0150-8, 2006.
Fettweis, X., van Ypersele, J.-P., Gallée, H., Lefebre, F., and Lefebvre, W.: The 1979-2005 Greenland ice sheet melt extent from passive microwave data using an improved version of the melt retrieval XPGR algorithm, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05502, doi:10.1029/2006GL028787, 2007.
Gallée, H. and Schayes, G.: Development of a three-dimensional meso-γ primitive equations model, Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 671–685, 1994.
Gallée, H., Guyomarc'h, G. and Brun, E.: Impact of the snow drift on the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance: possible sensitivity to snow-surface properties, Boundary-Layer Meteorol., 99, 1–19, 2001.
Goosse, H. and Holland, M.: Mechanisms of decadal Arctic variability in the Community Climate System Model CCSM2, J. Climate, 18(17), 3552–3570, 2005.
Greuell, W., Denby, B., van de Wal, R. S. W., and Oerlemans, J.: Ten years of massbalance measurements along a transect near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland, J. Glaciol., 47, 157–158, 2001.
Hanna, E., Huybrechts, P., and Mote, T.: Surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from climate analysis data and accumulation/run-off models, Ann. Glaciol., 35, 67–72, 2002.
Hanna, E. and Cappelen, J.: Recent cooling in coastal southern Greenland and relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1132, doi:10.1029/2002GL015797, 2003.
Hanna, E., Huybrechts, P., Janssens, I., Cappelen, J., Steffen, K., and Stephens, A.: Runoff and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: 1958–2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D13108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005641, 2005.
Hanna, E., McConnell, J., Das, S., Cappelen, J., and Stephens, A.: Observed and modeled Greenland ice sheet snow accumulation, 1958–2003, and links with regional climate forcing, J. Climate, 19, 344–358, 2006.
Hanna, E., Huybrechts, P., Steffen, K., Cappelen, J., Huff, R., Shuman, C., Irvine-Fynn, T., Wise, S. and Griffiths, M.: Increased runoff from melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet: a response to global warming, J. Climate, accepted, 2007.
Howat, I. M., Joughin, I. Tulaczyk,, S., and Gogineni, S.: Rapid retreat and acceleration of Helheim Glacier, east Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L22502, doi:10.1029/2005GL024737, 2005.
Howat, I. M., Joughin, I. and Scambos, T. A.: Rapid Changes in Ice Discharge from Greenland Outlet Glaciers, Science, 315(5818), 1559, doi:10.1126/science.1138478, 2007.
Janssens, I. and Huybrechts, P.: The treatment of meltwater retention in mass-balance parameterizations of the Greenland ice sheet, Ann. Glaciol., 31, 133–140, 2000.
Johannessen, O. M., Khvorostovsky, K., Miles, M. W., and Bobylev, L. P.: Recent ice sheet growth in the interior of Greenland, Sciencexpress, 20 October 2005, 1013–1016, doi:10.1126/science.1115356, 2005.
Jones, P. D., Jonsson, T., and Wheeler, D.: Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland, Int. J. Climatol. 17, 1433–1450, 1997.
Krabill, W., Frederick, E., Manizade, S., Martin, C., Sonntag, J., Swift, R. Thomas,, R., Wright, W., and Yngel, J.: Rapid thinning of parts of the southern Greenland ice sheet, Science, 283, 1522–1524, 1999.
Krabill, W., Abdalati, W., Frederick, E., Manizade, S., Martin, C., Sonntag, J., Swift, R., Thomas, R., Wright, W., and J. Yungel: Greenland Ice Sheet: High-Elevation Balance and Peripheral Thinning, Science, 289, 428–430, 2000.
Krabill, W., Hanna, E., Huybrechts, P., Abdalati, W., Cappelen, J., Csatho, B., Frederick, E., Manizade, S., Martin, C., Sonntag, J., Swift, R., Thomas, R., and Yungel, J.: Greenland Ice Sheet: Increased coastal thinning, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24402, doi:10.1029/2004GL021533, 2004.
Lefebre, F., Gallée, H., van Ypersele, J., and Greuell, W.: Modeling of snow and ice melt at ETH-camp (west Greenland): a study of surface albedo, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D8), 4231, doi:10.1029/2001JD001160, 2003.
Lefebre, F., Fettweis, X., Gallée, H., van Ypersele, J., Marbaix, P., Greuell, W., and Calanca, P.: Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation over Greenland, Clim. Dyn., 25, 99–116, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0005-8, 2005.
Lemke, P., Ren, J., Alley, R. B., Allison, I., Carrasco, J., Flato, G., Fujii, Y., Kaser, G., Mote, P., Thomas, R. H., and Zhang, T.: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
Luckman, A. and Murray, T.: Seasonal variation in velocity before retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L08501, doi:10.1029/2005GL022519, 2005.
Luckman, A., Murray, T., de Lange, R., and Hanna, E.: Rapid and synchronous ice-dynamic changes in East Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03503, doi:10.1029/2005GL025428, 2006.
Luthcke, S. B., Zwally, H. J., Abdalati, W., Rowlands, D. D., Ray, R. D., Nerem, R. S., Lemoine, F. G., McCarthy, J. J., and Chinn, D. S.: Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss by Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations, Science, 314(5803), 1286, doi:10.1126/science.1130776, 2006
Mosley-Thompson, E., Readinger, C. R., Craigmile, P., Thompson, L. G., and Calder, C. A.: Regional sensitivity of Greenland precipitation to NAO variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24707, doi:10.1029/2005GL024776, 2005.
Moritz, R. E., Bitz, C. M., and Steig, E. J.: Dynamics of recent climate change in the Arctic, Sciences, 297, 1497–1502, 2003.
Mote, T. L.: Estimation of runoff rates, mass balance, and elevation changes on the Greenland ice sheet from passive microwave observations, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D2), 4056, doi:10.1029/2001JD002032, 2003.
Ohmura, A., Calanca, P., Wild, M., and Anklin, M.: Precipitation, accumulation, and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, Zeit. Gletsch. Glazialgeol, 35, 1–20, 1999.
Osborn, T. J.: Simulating the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: the roles of internal variability and greenhouse gas forcing, Clim. Dyn., 22, 605–623, 2004.
Rahmstorf, S., Crucifix, M., Ganopolski, A., Goosse, H., Kamenkovich, I., Knutti, R., Lohmann, G., Marsh, R., Mysak, L. A., Wang, Z., and Weaver, A. J.: Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: A model intercomparison, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32(23), L23605, doi:10.1029/2005GL023655, 2005.
Reeh, N., Mayer, C., Miller, H., Thomson, H. H., and Weidick, A.: Present and past climate control on fjord glaciations in Greenland: Implications for IRD-deposition in the sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1039–1042, 1999.
Ridley, J., Huybrechts, P., Gregory, J., and Lowe, J.: Future changes in the Greenland ice sheet: A 3000 year simulation with a high resolution ice sheet model interactively coupled to an AOGCM, J. Climate, 18, 3409–3427, 2005.
Rignot, E., Braaten, D., Gogineni, S. P., Krabill, W. B., and McConnell, J. R.: Rapid ice discharge from southeast Greenland glaciers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L10401, doi:10.1029/2004GL019474, 2004.
Rignot, E. and Kanagaratnam, P.: Changes in the Velocity Structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Science 17 February 2006, 311, 986–990, doi:10.1126/science.112138, 2006.
Rigor, I. G., Wallace, J. M., and Colony, R. L.: Response of sea ice to the Arctic Oscillation, J. Climate, 15, 2648–2663, 2000.
Rogers, J. C.: North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate variability of Northern Europe, J. Climate, 10(7), 1635–1647, 1997.
Rogers, J. C., Wang, S. H., and Bromwich, D. H.: On the role of the NAO in recent northeastern Atlantic Arctic warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L02201, doi:10.1029/2003GL018728, 2004.
Snedecor, G. W. and Cochran, W. G.: Méthodes statistiques, Original Title: Statistical Methods 6th edition by The Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, USA, 67-21577, traduit par H. Boelle et E. Camhaji, Association de Coordination Technique Agricole, Paris, 649 pp, 1971.
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Alley, R. B., Berntsen, T., Bindoff, N. L., Chen, Z. Chidthaisong,, A., Gregory, J. M., Hegerl, G. C., Heimann, M., Hewitson, B., Hoskins, B. J., Joos, F., Jouzel, J., Kattsov, V,. Lohmann, U., Matsuno, T., Molina, M., Nicholls, N., Overpeck, J., Raga, G., Ramaswamy, V., Ren, J., Rusticucci, M., Somerville, R., Stocker, T. F., Whetton, P., Wood, R. A., and Wratt, D.: Technical Summary in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller , H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
Thomas, R., Csatho, B., Davis, C., Kim, C., Krabill, W., Manizade, S., McConnell, J., and Sonntag, J.: Mass balance of higher-elevation parts of the Greenland ice sheet, J. Geophys. Res., 106(D24), 33 707, doi:10.1029/2001JD900033, 2001.
Thomas, R., Frederick, E., Krabill, W., Manizade, S., and Martin, C.: Progressive increase in ice loss from Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10503, doi:10.1029/2006GL026075, 2006.
Thompson, D. W. J. and Wallace, J. M.: The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields, Geophys. Res. Lett., (9), 1297–1300, 1998.
Velicogna, I., and Wahr, J.: Greenland mass balance from GRACE, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18505, doi:10.1029/2005GL023955, 2005.
Zwally, J. H. and Giovinetto, M. B.: Balance mass flux and ice velocity across the equilibrium line in drainage systems of Greenland, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 33 717–33 728, 2001.
Zwally, J. H., Abdalati, W., Herring, T., Larson, K., Saba, J., and Steffen, K.: Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow, Science, 297, 218–222, 2002.
Zwally, J. H., Giovinetto, M., Li, J., Cornejo, H., Beckley, M., Brenner, A., Saba, J., and Yi, D.: Mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and contributions to sea-level rise: 1992–2002, J. Glaciol., 51(175), December 2005, 509–527(19), 2005.