The Cryosphere Discussions www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net 1994-0432 1994-0440 1 1 2007 10.5194/tcd-1-77-2007 http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/1/77/2007/ http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/1/77/2007/tcd-1-77-2007.html http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/1/77/2007/tcd-1-77-2007.pdf 77 97 2007-06-27 Reconstructing the glacier contribution to sea-level rise back to 1850 J. Oerlemans j.oerlemans@phys.uu.nl M. Dyurgerov R. S. W. van de Wal Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, Utrecht 3584CC, The Netherlands Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 10654 Stockholm, Sweden We present a method to estimate the glacier contribution to sea-level rise from glacier length records. These records form the only direct evidence of glacier changes prior to 1946, when the first systematic mass-balance observations began. A globally representative length signal is calculated from 197 length records from all continents by normalisation and averaging of 14 different regions. Next, the resulting signal is calibrated with mass-balance observations for the period 1961–2000. We find that the glacier contribution to sea level rise was 5.5±1.0 cm during the period 1850–2000 and 4.5±0.7 cm during the period 1900–2000. Arendt, A., Echelmeyer, K., Harrison, W. D., Lingle, G., and Valentine, V.: Rapid wastage of Alaska Glaciers and their contribution to rising sea level, Science, 297, 382–386, 2002. Bahr, D. B.: Width and length scaling of glaciers, J. Glaciol., 43, 557–562, 1997. Bahr, D. B., Meier, M. F., and Peckham, S. D.: The physical basis of glacier volume-area scaling, J. Geophys. Res., 102(B9), 20 355–20 362, 1997. Barry, R. G.: The status of research on glaciers and global glacier recession, Progr. Phys. Geogr., 30, 285–306, 2006. Church, J. A. and White, N. J.: A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01602, doi:10.1029/2005GL024826, 2006. Dyurgerov, M. B. and Meier, M. F.: Glaciers and the changing earth system: a 2004 snapshot, Occasional Paper No. 58, INSTAAR, University of Colorado, 2005. Greuell, W.: Hintereisferner, Austria: mass-balance reconstruction and numerical modelling of the historical length variations, J. Glaciol., 38, 233–244, 1992. IPCC-2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), edited by: Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., Van der Linden, P. J., and Xiaosu, D., Cambridge University Press, 2001. IPCC-2007, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, http://www.ipcc.ch/, 2007. Jóhannesson, T., Björnsson, H., and Grothendieck, G.: The Stinepack Package, Icelandic Meteorological Office, 2006. Kaser, G., Cogley. J. G., Dyurgerov, M. B., Meier, M. F., and Ohmura, A.: Mass balance of glaciers and ice caps: Consensus estimates for 1961–2004, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19501, doi:10.1029/2006GL027511, 2006. Leysinger Vieli, G. J.-M. and Gudmundsson, G. H.: On estimating length fluctuations of glaciers caused by changes in climate forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 109, F01007, doi:10.1029/2003JF000027, 2004. Meier, M. F.: Contribution of small glaciers to global sea-level, Science, 226, 1418–1421, 1984. Oerlemans, J.: Glaciers and Climate Change, A.A. Balkema Publishers, 2001. Oerlemans, J.: Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records, Science, 308, 675–677, doi:10.1126/science.1107046, 2005. Radic, V., Hock, R., and Oerlemans, J.: Volume-area scaling approach versus flowline model in glacier volume projections, Ann. Glaciol., 46, in press 2007. Schmeits, M. J. and Oerlemans, J.: Simulation of the historical variations in length of the Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher, J. Glaciol., 43(143), 152–164, 1997. Rignot, E., Rivera, A., and Casassa, G.: Contribution of the Patagonia Icefields of South America to Global Sea Level Rise, Science, 302, 434–437, 2003. Stineman, R. W.: A consistently well-behaved method of interpolation, Creative Computing, July 1980, 54–57, 1980. Van de Wal, R. S. W. and Wild, M.: Modelling the response of glaciers to climate change, applying volume-area scaling in combination with a high resolution GCM, Clim. Dyn., 18, 359–366, 2001. Weertman, J.: Stability of ice-age ice-sheets, J. Geophys. Res., 66, 3783–3792, 1961. Zuo, Z. and Oerlemans, J.: Contribution of glacier melt to sea-level rise since AD 1865: a regionally differentiated calculation, Clim. Dyn., 13, 835–845, 1997.