The Cryosphere Discussions www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net 1994-0432 1994-0440 2 2 2008 10.5194/tcd-2-185-2008 http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/2/185/2008/ http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/2/185/2008/tcd-2-185-2008.html http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/2/185/2008/tcd-2-185-2008.pdf 185 224 2008-04-02 Transient thermal effects in Alpine permafrost J. Noetzli jeannette.noetzli@geo.uzh.ch S. Gruber Glaciology, Geomorphodynamics & Geochronology, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland In high mountain areas, permafrost is important because it influences natural hazards and construction practices, and because it is an indicator of climate change. The modeling of its distribution and evolution over time is complicated by steep and complex topography, highly variable conditions at and below the surface, and varying climatic conditions. This paper presents a systematic investigation of effects of climate variability and topography that are important for subsurface temperatures in Alpine permafrost areas. The effects of both past and projected future ground surface temperature variations on the thermal state of Alpine permafrost are studied based on numerical experimentation with simplified mountain topography. For this purpose, we use a surface energy balance model together with a subsurface heat conduction scheme. The past climate variations that essentially influence the present-day permafrost temperatures at depth are the last glacial period and the major fluctuations in the past millennium. The influence of projected future warming was assessed to cause even larger transient effects in the subsurface thermal field because warming occurs on shorter time scales. Results further demonstrate the accelerating influence of multi-lateral warming in Alpine topography for a temperature signal entering the subsurface. 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