<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" standalone="no"?>
<!DOCTYPE article SYSTEM "http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/inc/tcd/copernicus.dtd">
<article language="en">
	<journal>
		<journal_title>The Cryosphere Discussions</journal_title>
		<journal_url>www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net</journal_url>
		<issn>1994-0432</issn>
		<eissn>1994-0440</eissn>
		<volume_number>3</volume_number>
		<issue_number>2</issue_number>
		<publication_year>2009</publication_year>
	</journal>
	<doi>10.5194/tcd-3-579-2009</doi>
	<article_url>http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/3/579/2009/</article_url>
	<abstract_html>http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/3/579/2009/tcd-3-579-2009.html</abstract_html>
	<fulltext_pdf>http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/3/579/2009/tcd-3-579-2009.pdf</fulltext_pdf>
	<start_page>579</start_page>
	<end_page>630</end_page>
	<publication_date>2009-08-14</publication_date>
	<article_title content_type="html">Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years</article_title>
	<authors>
		<author numeration="1" affiliations="1">
			<name>A. J. Cook</name>
			<email>acook@bas.ac.uk</email>
		</author>
		<author numeration="2" affiliations="1">
			<name>D. G. Vaughan</name>
		</author>
	</authors>
	<affiliations>
		<affiliation numeration="1" content_type="html">British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK</affiliation>
	</affiliations>
	<abstract content_type="html">In recent decades, seven out of twelve ice shelves around the Antarctic
Peninsula (AP) have either retreated significantly or have been almost
entirely lost. At least some of these retreats have been shown to be unusual
within the context of the Holocene and have been widely attributed to recent
atmospheric and oceanic changes. To date, measurements of the area of ice
shelves on the AP have either been approximated, or calculated for
individual shelves over dissimilar time intervals. Here we present a new
dataset containing up-to-date and consistent area calculations for each of
the twelve ice shelves on the AP over the past five decades. The results
reveal an overall reduction in total ice-shelf area by over 28 000 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;
since the beginning of the period. Individual ice shelves show different
rates of retreat, ranging from slow but progressive retreat to abrupt
collapse. We discuss the pertinent features of each ice shelf and also broad
spatial and temporal patterns in the timing and rate of retreat. We believe
that an understanding of this diversity and what it implies about the
baseline dynamics and control will provide the best foundation for
developing a reliable real predictive skill.</abstract>
	<references>
		<reference numeration="1" content_type="text"> Braun, M. and Humbert, A.: Recent Retreat of Wilkins Ice Shelf Reveals New Insights in Ice Shelf Breakup Mechanisms, IEEE Geosci. Remote S., 6, 263–267, doi:10.1109/lgrs.2008.2011925, 2009. </reference>
		<reference numeration="2" content_type="text"> Braun, M., Humbert, A., and Moll, A.: Changes of Wilkins Ice Shelf over the past 15 years and inferences on its stability, The Cryosphere, 3, 41–56, 2009. </reference>
		<reference numeration="3" content_type="text"> Cook, A., Fox, A. J., Vaughan, D. G., and Ferrigno, J. G.: Retreating glacier-fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 50 years, Science, 22, 541–544, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="4" content_type="text"> Cooper, A. P. R.: Historical observations of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf, Pol. Rec., 33, 285–294, 1997. </reference>
		<reference numeration="5" content_type="text"> De Angelis, H. and Skvarca, P.: Glacier surge after ice shelf collapse, Science, 299, 1560–1562, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="6" content_type="text"> Doake, C. S. M. and Vaughan, D. G.: Breakup of Wordie Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Glacier-Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions, St Petersburg, 161–165, 1991a. </reference>
		<reference numeration="7" content_type="text"> Doake, C. S. M. and Vaughan, D. G.: Rapid disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf in response to atmospheric warming, Nature, 350, 328–330, 1991b. </reference>
		<reference numeration="8" content_type="text"> Doake, C. S. M., Corr, H. F. J., Rott, H., Skvarca, P., and Young, N. W.: Breakup and conditions for stability of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Nature, 391, 778–780, 1998. </reference>
		<reference numeration="9" content_type="text"> Domack, E., Duran, D., Leventer, A., Ishman, S., Doane, S., McCallum, S., Amblas, D., Ring, J., Gilbert, R., and Prentice, M.: Stability of the Larsen~B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 436, 681–685, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="10" content_type="text"> Domack, E. W., Ishman, S. E., Stein, A. B., McClennen, C. E., and Jull, A. J. T.: Late Holocene advance of Muüller Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula: sedimentological, geochemical and palaeontological evidence, Antarct. Sci., 7, 159–170, 1995. </reference>
		<reference numeration="11" content_type="text"> Ferrigno, J. G., Cook, A. J., Foley, K. M., Williams, R. S. J., Swithinbank, C., Fox, A. J., Thomson, J. W., and Sievers, J.: Coastal-change and glaciological map of the Trinity Peninsula area and South Shetland Islands, Antarctica: 1843–2001, US Geological Survey Geologic Investigations Map Series Map I-2600-A, with 32p pamphlet, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="12" content_type="text"> Ferrigno, J. G., Cook, A. J., Mathie, A. M., Williams, R. S. J., Swithinbank, C., Foley, K. M., Fox, A. J., Thomson, J. W., and Sievers, J.: Coastal-change and glaciological map of the Larsen Ice Shelf area, Antarctica: 1940–2005, US Geological Survey Geologic Investigations Map Series Map I-2600-B, with 28p pamphlet, 2008. </reference>
		<reference numeration="13" content_type="text"> Fox, A. J. and Vaughan, D. G.: The retreat of Jones Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, J. Glaciol., 51, 555–560, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="14" content_type="text"> Glasser, N. F. and Scambos, T. A.: A structural glaciological analysis of the 2002 Larsen~B ice-shelf collapse, J. Glaciol., 54, 3–16, 2008. </reference>
		<reference numeration="15" content_type="text"> Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A., and Holland, D. M.: The response of ice shelf basal melting to variations in ocean temperature, J. Climate, 21, 2558–2572, doi:10.1175/2007jcli1909.1, 2008. </reference>
		<reference numeration="16" content_type="text"> Holland, P. R., Corr, H. F. J., Vaughan, D. G., Jenkins, A., and Skvarca, P.: Marine ice in Larsen Ice Shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11604, doi:10.1029/2009gl038162, 2009. </reference>
		<reference numeration="17" content_type="text"> Hulbe, C. L., Scambos, T. A., Youngberg, T., and Lamb, A. K.: Patterns of glacier response to disintegration of the Larsen~B ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, Global Planet. Change, 63, 1–8, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.04.001, 2008. </reference>
		<reference numeration="18" content_type="text"> Humbert, A. and Braun, M.: The Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica: break-up along failure zones, J. Glaciol., 54, 943–944, 2008. </reference>
		<reference numeration="19" content_type="text"> Karstkarel, N.: &quot;Changes in Shelf Ice Extent in West Antarctica between 1840 and 1960: Analysing Historical Maps in a Geographic Information System&quot;, Circumpolar Studies, 3, 1–170, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="20" content_type="text"> King, J. C.: Recent climate variability in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula, Int. J. Climatol., 14, 357–369, 1994. </reference>
		<reference numeration="21" content_type="text"> King, J. C. and Harangozo, S. A.: Climate change in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1945: observations and possible causes, Ann. Glaciol., 27, 571–575, 1998. </reference>
		<reference numeration="22" content_type="text"> Liu, H., Jezek, K., Li, B., and Zhao, Z.: Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project digital elevation model version~2, Boulder, Colorado, USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Digital media, 2001. </reference>
		<reference numeration="23" content_type="text"> Luchitta, B. K. and Rosanova, C. E.: Retreat of northern margins of George~VI and Wilkins ice shelves, Antarctic Peninsula, Ann. Glaciol., 27, 41–46, 1998. </reference>
		<reference numeration="24" content_type="text"> MacAyeal, D. R., Scambos, T. A., Hulbe, C. L., and Fahnestock, M. A.: Catastrophic ice-shelf break-up by an ice-shelf-fragment-capsize mechanism, J. Glaciol., 49, 22–36, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="25" content_type="text"> Marshall, G. J., Orr, A., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and King, J. C.: The Impact of a Changing Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on Antarctic Peninsula Summer Temperatures, J. Climate, 19, 5388–5404, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="26" content_type="text"> Mercer, J. H.: West Antarctic ice sheet and CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster, Nature, 271, 321–325, 1978. </reference>
		<reference numeration="27" content_type="text"> Morris, E. M. and Vaughan, D. G.: Spatial and temporal variation of surface temperature on the Antarctic Peninsula and the limit of viability of ice shelves, in: Antarctic Peninsula Climate Variability: Historical and Paleoenvironmental Perspectives, edited by: Domack, E., Leventer, A., Burnett, A., Bindschadler, R., Convey, P., and Kirby, M., AGU, Washington, DC, Antarct. Res. Ser., 79, 61–68, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="28" content_type="text"> Nicholls, K. W.: Predicted reduction in basal melt rates of an Antarctic ice shelf in a warmer climate, Nature, 388, 460–462, 1997. </reference>
		<reference numeration="29" content_type="text"> Nicholls, K. W., Pudsey, C. J., and Morris, P.: Summertime water masses off the northern Larsen~C Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L09309, doi:10.1029/2004GL019924, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="30" content_type="text"> Payne, A. J., Vieli, A., Shepherd, A., Wingham, D. J., and Rignot, E.: Recent dramatic thinning of largest West Antarctic ice stream triggered by oceans, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23401, doi:10.1029/1204GL021284, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="31" content_type="text"> Pearson, M. R. and Rose, I. H.: The dynamics of George~VI Ice Shelf, British Antarctic Survey Bulletin, 52, 205–220, 1983. </reference>
		<reference numeration="32" content_type="text"> Potter, J. R. and Paren, J. G.: Interaction between ice shelf and ocean in George~VI Sound, Antarctica, Antarct. Res. Ser., 43, 35–57, 1985. </reference>
		<reference numeration="33" content_type="text"> Pritchard, H. and Vaughan, D. G.: Widespread acceleration of tidewater glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F03S29, doi:10.1029/2006JF000597, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="34" content_type="text"> Pudsey, C. J. and Evans, J.: First survey of Antarctic sub-ice shelf sediments reveals mid-Holocene ice shelf retreat, Geology, 29, 787–790, 2001. </reference>
		<reference numeration="35" content_type="text"> Rack, W., Doake, C. S. M., Rott, H., Siegel, A., and Skvarca, P.: Interferometric analysis of the deformation pattern of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, compared to field measurements and numerical modeling, Ann. Glaciol., 31, 205–210, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="36" content_type="text"> Rignot, E., Casassa, G., Gogineni, P., Krabill, W., Rivera, A., and Thomas, R.: Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18401, doi:10.1029/2004GL020679, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="37" content_type="text"> Rignot, E., Casassa, G., Gogineni, S., Kanagaratnam, P., Krabill, W., Pritchard, H., Rivera, A., Thomas, R., and Vaughan, D.: Recent ice loss from the Fleming and other glaciers, Wordie Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L07502, doi:10.1029/2004GL021947, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="38" content_type="text"> Roberts, S. J., Hodgson, D. A., Bentley, M. J., Smith, J. A., Millar, I. L., Olive, V., and Sugden, D. E.: The Holocene history of George~VI Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula from clast-provenance analysis of epishelf lake sediments, Paleogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 259, 258–283, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2007.10.010, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="39" content_type="text"> Robertson, R., Visbeck, M., Gordon, A. L., and Fahrbach, E.: Long-term temperature trends in the deep waters of the Weddell Sea, Deep-Sea Res. Pt II – Top. Stud. Oceanogr., 49, 4791–4806, 2002. </reference>
		<reference numeration="40" content_type="text"> Rott, H., Skvarca, P., and Nagler, T.: Rapid collapse of Northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Science, 271, 788–792, 1996. </reference>
		<reference numeration="41" content_type="text"> Rott, H., Rack, W., Nagler, T., and Skvarca, P.: Climatically induced retreat and collapse of northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, Ann. Glaciol., 27, 86–92, 1998. </reference>
		<reference numeration="42" content_type="text"> Rott, H., Rack, W., Skvarca, P., and de Angelis, H.: Northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica: further retreat after collapse, Ann. Glaciol., 34, 277–282, 2002. </reference>
		<reference numeration="43" content_type="text"> Scambos, T., Hulbe, C., and Fahnestock, M.: Climate-induced ice shelf disintegration in the Antarctic Peninsula, in: Antarctic Peninsula Climate Variability: Historical and Paleoenvironmental Perspectives, edited by: Domack, E., Leventer, A., Burnett, A., Bindschadler, R., Convey, P., and Kirby, M., AGU, Washington, DC, Antarct. Res. Ser., 79, 79–92, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="44" content_type="text"> Scambos, T., Ross, R., Bauer, R., Yermolin, Y., Skvarca, P., Long, D., Bohlander, J., and Haran, T.: Calving and ice-shelf break-up processes investigated by proxy: Antarctic tabular iceberg evolution during northward drift, J. Glaciol., 54, 579–591, 2008. </reference>
		<reference numeration="45" content_type="text"> Scambos, T., Fricker, H. A., Liu, C. C., Bohlander, J., Fastook, J., Sargent, A., Massom, R., and Wu, A. M.: Ice shelf disintegration by plate bending and hydro-fracture: Satellite observations and model results of the 2008 Wilkins ice shelf break-ups, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 280, 51–60, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.12.027, 2009. </reference>
		<reference numeration="46" content_type="text"> Scambos, T. A., Hulbe, C., Fahnestock, M., and Bohlander, J.: The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula, J. Glaciol., 46, 516–530, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="47" content_type="text"> Scambos, T. A., Bohlander, J. A., Shuman, C. A., and Skvarca, P.: Glacier acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen~B embayment, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18402, doi:10.1029/2004GL020670, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="48" content_type="text"> Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research: The Antarctic digital database, Version-4.1, http://www.add.scar.org/, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="49" content_type="text"> Shepherd, A., Wingham, D., Payne, T., and Skvarca, P.: Larsen ice shelf has progressively thinned, Science, 302, 856–859, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="50" content_type="text"> Skvarca, P.: Fast recession of the Northern Larsen Ice Shelf monitored by space images, Ann. Glaciol., 17, 317–321, 1993. </reference>
		<reference numeration="51" content_type="text"> Skvarca, P.: Change and surface features of the Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica, derived from Landsat and Kosmos mosaics, Ann. Glaciol., 20, 6–12, 1994. </reference>
		<reference numeration="52" content_type="text"> Skvarca, P., Rack, W., Rott, H., and Donangelo, T. I. Y.: Evidence of recent climatic warming on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula, Ann. Glaciol., 27, 628–632, 1998. </reference>
		<reference numeration="53" content_type="text"> Skvarca, P., Rack, W., Rott, H., and Donangelo, T. I. Y.: Climatic trend and the retreat and disintegration of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula: an overview, Polar Res., 18, 151–157, 1999. </reference>
		<reference numeration="54" content_type="text"> Skvarca, P., De Angelis, H., and Zakrajsek, A. F.: Climatic conditions, mass balance and dynamics of Larsen~B ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, prior to collapse, 7th International Symposium on Antarctic Glaciology (ISAG-7), Milan, ITALY, ISI:000232368400083, 557–562, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="55" content_type="text"> Smith, J. A., Bentley, M. J., Hodgson, D. A., and Cook, A. J.: George~VI Ice Shelf: past history, present behaviour and potential mechanisms for future collapse, Antarct. Sci., 19, 131–142, doi:10.1017/s0954102007000193, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="56" content_type="text"> Swithinbank, C. W. M. and Luchitta, B. K.: Multispectral digital image mapping of Antarctic ice features, Ann. Glaciol., 8, 159–163, 1986. </reference>
		<reference numeration="57" content_type="text"> van den Broeke, M.: Strong surface melting preceded collapse of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12815, doi:10.1029/2005GL0223247, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="58" content_type="text"> van der Veen, C. J.: Fracture propagation as means of rapidly transferring surface meltwater to the base of glaciers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 5, L01501, doi:10.1029/2006gl028385, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="59" content_type="text"> Vaughan, D. G., Mantripp, D. R., Sievers, J., and Doake, C. S. M.: A synthesis of remote sensing data on Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Ann. Glaciol., 17, 211–218, 1993. </reference>
		<reference numeration="60" content_type="text"> Vaughan, D. G. and Doake, C. S. M.: Recent atmospheric warming and retreat of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula, Nature, 379, 328–331, 1996. </reference>
		<reference numeration="61" content_type="text"> Vaughan, D. G., Marshall, G. J., Connolley, W. M., King, J. C., and Mulvaney, R.: Climate Change: Devil in the Detail, Science, 293, 1777–1779, 2001. </reference>
		<reference numeration="62" content_type="text"> Vaughan, D. G., Marshall, G. J., Connolley, W. M., Parkinson, C. L., Mulvaney, R., Hodgson, D. A., King, J. C., Pudsey, C. J., and Turner, J.: Recent rapid regional climate warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, Climatic Change, 60, 243–274, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="63" content_type="text"> Vaughan, D. G.: Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance, Arctic, Antarct. Alp. Res., 38, 147–152, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="64" content_type="text"> Vieli, A., Payne, A. J., Du, Z. J., and Shepherd, A.: Numerical modelling and data assimilation of the Larsen~B ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 364, 1815–1839, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="65" content_type="text"> Vieli, A., Payne, A. J., Shepherd, A., and Du, Z.: Causes of pre-collapse changes of the Larsen~B ice shelf: Numerical modelling and assimilation of satellite observations, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 259, 297–306, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.04.050, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="66" content_type="text"> Wager, A. C.: Flooding of the ice shelf in George~VI Sound, Brit. Antarct. Surv. B., 28, 71–74, 1972. </reference>
		<reference numeration="67" content_type="text"> Walker, D. P., Brandon, M. A., Jenkins, A., Allen, J. T., Dowdeswell, J. A., and Evans, J.: Oceanic heat transport onto the Amundsen Sea shelf through a submarine glacial trough, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 4, L02602, doi:10.1029/2006gl028154, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="68" content_type="text"> Ward, C. G.: The mapping of ice front changes on Müller Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, Antarct. Sci., 7, 197–198, 1995. </reference>
		<reference numeration="69" content_type="text"> Williams, R. S. J. and Ferrigno, J. G.: US Geological Survey Fact Sheet FS~2005–3055, US Geological Survey, http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3055/fs2005-3055.pdf, 2007. </reference>
	</references>
</article>

