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www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/1021/2011/
doi:10.5194/tcd-5-1021-2011
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Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models
1Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USA
2Technical University of Denmark, Anker Engelundsvej 1, 2800 Kgs. Lungby, Denmark
3Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
4Asiaq-Greenland Survey, Qatserisut 8, 3900 Nuuk, Greenland
Abstract. Climate change is detrimental to permafrost and related processes, from hydrological and ecological to societal. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modeled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections till 2075. In this paper we developed the Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP). This is the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP was used in a simple risk assessment procedure usefull for engineerings. Climate warming will result in wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation. Construction on sedimentary deposits with permafrost should be avoided south of latitude 67.
Discussion Paper (PDF, 2685 KB) Interactive Discussion (Closed, 4 Comments) Final Revised Paper (TC) Special Issue
Notice on Discussion StatusCitation: Daanen, R. P., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Marchenko, S. S., Romanovsky, V. E., Foged, N., Stendel, M., Christensen, J. H., and Hornbech Svensen, K.: Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models, The Cryosphere Discuss., 5, 1021-1053, doi:10.5194/tcd-5-1021-2011, 2011. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
