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www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/2253/2011/
doi:10.5194/tcd-5-2253-2011
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pSNOWPACK: a forecasting tool for avalanche warning services
1Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, AB, Canada
2Dept. of Geoscience, University of Calgary, AB, Canada
3WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Abstract. Avalanche danger is often estimated based on snow cover stratigraphy and snow stability data. In Canada, single forecasting regions are very large (>50 000 km2) and snow cover data are often not available. To provide additional information on the snow cover and its seasonal evolution the Swiss snow cover model SNOWPACK was therefore coupled with a regional weather forecasting model GEM15. We assess the capability of this model chain (pSNOWPACK) to forecast three key factors of snow cover instability at a single point: new snow amounts, surface hoar formation and crust formation. The output of GEM15 was compared to meteorological data from Mt. Fidelity, British Columbia, Canada, for five winters between 2005 and 2010. Forecasted precipitation amounts were generally over-estimated. The forecasted data were therefore filtered and used as input for the snow cover model. Comparison between the model output and manual observations showed that after pre-processing the input data the snow depth, new snow events and amounts were well modelled. Relevant critical layers, i.e. melt-freeze crusts and surface hoar layers were reproduced. Overall, the model chain pSNOWPACK shows promising potential as a forecasting tool for avalanche warning services in Canadian data sparse areas and could thus well be applied to similarly large regions elsewhere.
Discussion Paper (PDF, 1875 KB) Interactive Discussion (Closed, 4 Comments) Final Revised Paper (TC)
Notice on Discussion StatusCitation: Bellaire, S., Jamieson, J. B., and Fierz, C.: pSNOWPACK: a forecasting tool for avalanche warning services, The Cryosphere Discuss., 5, 2253-2278, doi:10.5194/tcd-5-2253-2011, 2011. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
