The Cryosphere Discussions www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net 1994-0432 1994-0440 6 1 2012 10.5194/tcd-6-341-2012 http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/6/341/2012/ http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/6/341/2012/tcd-6-341-2012.html http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/6/341/2012/tcd-6-341-2012.pdf 341 385 2012-01-27 Modelling borehole temperatures in Southern Norway – insights into permafrost dynamics during the 20th and 21st century T. Hipp tobias.hipp@geo.uio.no B. Etzelmüller H. Farbrot T. V. Schuler S. Westermann Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway A transient heat flow model was used to simulate both past and future ground temperatures of mountain permafrost and associated active layer thickness in Southern Norway. The model was forced by reconstructed air temperature starting from 1860, approximately coinciding with the Little Ice Age in the region. The impact of climate warming on mountain permafrost until 2100 is assessed by using downscaled air temperatures from a multi-model ensemble for the A1B scenario. For 13 borehole locations, records over three consecutive years of ground temperatures, air temperatures and snow cover data are available for model calibration and validation. The boreholes are located at different elevations and in substrates with different thermal properties. With an increase of air temperature of ~+1.5 &deg;C over 1860–2010 and an additional warming of +2.8 &deg;C until 2100, we simulate the evolution of ground temperatures for the borehole locations. According to model results, the active-layer thickness has increased since 1860 by 0.5–5 m and >10 m for the sites Juvvasshøe and Tron, respectively. The simulations also suggest that at an elevation of about 1900 m a.s.l. permafrost will degrade until the end of this century with a probability of 55–75% given the chosen A1B scenario. 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