the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Uncertainty in future solid ice discharge from Antarctica
Abstract. Future solid ice discharge from Antarctica under climate scenarios based on the Extended Concentration Pathways is investigated with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), a shallow model with a consistent representation of the ice flow in sheet, shelves and the transition zone. Both the uncertainty in the climate forcing as well as the intra-model uncertainty are combined into a probability distribution for solid ice discharge from Antarctica until the year 2500 under the ECP scenarios: All simulations are performed for a 81-member perturbed-physics ensemble and the likely ranges of surface and ocean warming under the emission pathways derived from the results of 20 CMIP3-AOGCMS. The effects of surface warming, ocean warming and increased precipitation on solid ice discharge are separately considered. We find that solid ice discharge caused by enhanced sub-shelf melting exceeds that caused by surface warming. Increasing precipitation leads to a change from net sea-level rise to sea-level drop. Our results suggest that the history of the ice-sheet plays an important role with respect to projections of solid ice discharge. Although all climate-change-forced simulations begin with the year 1850, the ice discharge around 2000 is significantly smaller than observed. Observed changes in ice discharge are reached around 2077 under the ECP-8.5 scenario. During the subsequent century, ice discharge reaches up to 0.24 m.
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RC C160: 'comments on "Uncertainty in Future Solid Ice Discharge from Antarctica", R. Winkelmann et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Mar 2012
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RC C167: 'Review of Winkelmann et al.: Uncertainty in future solid ice discharge from Antarctica', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Mar 2012
- Printer-friendly version
- Supplement
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RC C160: 'comments on "Uncertainty in Future Solid Ice Discharge from Antarctica", R. Winkelmann et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Mar 2012
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RC C167: 'Review of Winkelmann et al.: Uncertainty in future solid ice discharge from Antarctica', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Mar 2012
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Cited
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica D. Pollard & R. DeConto 10.5194/gmd-5-1273-2012
- Illustrative Analysis of Probabilistic Sea Level Rise Hazard M. Thomas & T. Lin 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0320.1
- Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project) R. Bindschadler et al. 10.3189/2013JoG12J125
- Investigating uncertainty in the simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet during the mid‐Piacenzian Q. Yan et al. 10.1002/2015JD023900
- Resolution of ice streams and outlet glaciers in large-scale simulations of the Greenland ice sheet R. Greve & U. Herzfeld 10.3189/2013AoG63A085
- Upper bounds on twenty-first-century Antarctic ice loss assessed using a probabilistic framework C. Little et al. 10.1038/nclimate1845
- Semi-empirical versus process-based sea-level projections for the twenty-first century M. Orlić & Z. Pasarić 10.1038/nclimate1877
- Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat A. Levermann et al. 10.5194/tc-6-273-2012
- Modeling Antarctic tides in response to ice shelf thinning and retreat S. Rosier et al. 10.1002/2013JC009240
