Glacier dynamics in the Western Italian Alps: a minimal model approach
D. Peano1,*, M. Chiarle1, and J. von Hardenberg21IRPI-CNR, Strada delle Cacce 73, 10135 Torino, Italy 2ISAC-CNR, Corso Fiume 4, 10133 Torino, Italy *now at: University Ca' Foscari, Venezia, Italy and CMCC, Bologna, Italy
Received: 17 Jan 2014 – Accepted for review: 14 Feb 2014 – Discussion started: 06 Mar 2014
Abstract. We study the response of a set of glaciers in the Western Italian Alps to climate variations using the minimal glacier modeling approach, first introduced by Oerlemans. The mathematical models are forced over the period 1959–2009, using temperature and precipitation recorded by a dense network of meteorological stations and we find a good match between the observed and modeled glacier length dynamics. Forcing the model with future projections from a state-of-the-art global climate model in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, we obtain a first estimate for the "expiration date" of these glaciers.
Peano, D., Chiarle, M., and von Hardenberg, J.: Glacier dynamics in the Western Italian Alps: a minimal model approach, The Cryosphere Discuss., 8, 1479-1516, doi:10.5194/tcd-8-1479-2014, 2014.