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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-122
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
14 Jul 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal The Cryosphere (TC).
Mechanisms influencing seasonal-to-interannual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC
Jun Ono1, Hiroaki Tatebe1, Yoshiki Komuro1, Masato I. Nodzu2, and Masayoshi Ishii3 1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
2Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, 192-0397, Japan
3Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, 305-0052, Japan
Abstract. To assess the skill of predictions of the seasonal-to-interannual detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on January 1st, April 1st, July 1st, and October 1st for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times of up three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialized with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 1 year ahead. This skill is attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. The subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to 3 months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas initialized in July, as suggested by previous studies.

Citation: Ono, J., Tatebe, H., Komuro, Y., Nodzu, M. I., and Ishii, M.: Mechanisms influencing seasonal-to-interannual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-122, in review, 2017.
Jun Ono et al.
Jun Ono et al.

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Short summary
Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has experienced rapid decline since the satellite era. To assess the predictability of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted prediction experiments using an initialized climate model (MIROC5). The present study reveals that subsurface ocean heat content originating from the North Atlantic contributes to the predictability of winter sea ice extent up to 1 year ahead, through the advection and vertical mixing.
Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has experienced rapid decline since the satellite era. To assess the...
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