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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-231
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-231
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 03 Dec 2018

Research article | 03 Dec 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal The Cryosphere (TC).

Effect of uncertainties of Southern Ocean surface temperature and sea-ice change on Antarctic climate projections

Julien Beaumet1, Michel Déqué2, Gerhard Krinner1, Cécile Agosta1,3,4, and Antoinette Alias2 Julien Beaumet et al.
  • 1Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, 38000, Grenoble, France
  • 2CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
  • 3F.R.S.-FNRS, Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
  • 4Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (IPSL/CEA-CNRS-UVSQ UMR 8216), CEA Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Abstract. In this study, the atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid in order to reach a average horizontal resolution of 35 kilometers over Antarctica. Over the historical period (1981–2010), ARPEGE is forced by the historical sea surface conditions (SSC, i.e. sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration) from MIROC and NorESM1-M CMIP5 historical runs and by observed SSC (AMIP-experiment). These three simulations are evaluated against ERA-Interim for atmospheric general circulation and against MAR regional climate model and in-situ observations for surface climate. As lower boundary conditions for simulations for the period 2071–2100, we use SSC from coupled climate model CMIP5 simulations of the same models following the RCP8.5 emission scenario. We use these output both directly and with an anomaly method based on quantile mapping. We assess the uncertainties linked to the choice of the coupled model and the impact of the method (direct output and anomalies). For the simulation using SSC from NorESM1-M, we do not find significant changes in climate change signals over Antarctica when using bias-corrected SSC. For the simulation using MIROC-ESM output, an additional increase of +185Gtyr−1 in precipitation and of +0.8K in winter temperatures for the grounded Antarctic ice-sheet was obtained when using bias-corrected SSC.

Julien Beaumet et al.
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Julien Beaumet et al.
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Short summary
The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid in order to reach an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over 1981-2010, we forced the model with observed and modelled sea surface conditions (SSC). For the late 21st century, we use original and bias-corrected sea surface conditions from RCP8.5 climate projections. We assess the impact of using direct or bias-corrected SSC for the evolution of Antarctic climate and surface mass balance.
The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid in order to reach an average...
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