Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.524 IF 4.524
  • IF 5-year value: 5.558 IF 5-year 5.558
  • CiteScore value: 4.84 CiteScore 4.84
  • SNIP value: 1.425 SNIP 1.425
  • SJR value: 3.034 SJR 3.034
  • IPP value: 4.65 IPP 4.65
  • h5-index value: 52 h5-index 52
  • Scimago H index value: 55 Scimago H index 55
Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-91
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Brief communication 15 May 2018

Brief communication | 15 May 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal The Cryosphere (TC) and is expected to appear here in due course.

Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models

Edward Hanna1, Xavier Fettweis2, and Richard J. Hall1 Edward Hanna et al.
  • 1School of Geography and Lincoln Centre forWater and Planetary Health, University of Lincoln, UK
  • 2Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium

Abstract. Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950–2100. We find that the recent summer GBI increase lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions (Historical scenario) and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently-observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over Northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models.

Download & links
Edward Hanna et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Edward Hanna et al.
Edward Hanna et al.
Viewed
Total article views: 690 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
527 154 9 690 27 4 4
  • HTML: 527
  • PDF: 154
  • XML: 9
  • Total: 690
  • Supplement: 27
  • BibTeX: 4
  • EndNote: 4
Views and downloads (calculated since 15 May 2018)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 May 2018)
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 690 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 688 with geography defined and 2 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited
Saved
No saved metrics found.
Discussed
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 23 Sep 2018
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
The latest/recent generation of global climate models does not simulate the recent (last 30 years') increase in atmospheric high pressure over Greenland in summer but more rather projects decreasing pressure. This difference between climate models and observations raises serious questions about the ability of the models to accurately represent future changes in Greenland climate and ice-sheet mass balance. There are also likely effects on climate predictions downstream, e.g. over Europe.
The latest/recent generation of global climate models does not simulate the recent (last 30...
Citation
Share