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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-112
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-112
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 21 Aug 2019

Submitted as: research article | 21 Aug 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal The Cryosphere (TC).

The Current State and 125 Kyr History of Permafrost in the Kara Sea Shelf: Modeling Constraints

Anatoliy Gavrilov1,3, Vladimir Pavlov4, Alexandr Fridenberg4, Mikhail Boldyrev5, Vanda Khilimonyuk1,3, Elena Pizhankova1,3, Sergey Buldovich1,3, Natalia Kosevich1,3, Ali Alyautdinov2,3, Mariia Ogienko1,3, Alexander Roslyakov1,3, Maria Cherbunina1,3, and Evgeniy Ospennikov1,3 Anatoliy Gavrilov et al.
  • 1Lomonosov Moscow State University, Geological faculty, Moscow, Russia
  • 2Lomonosov Moscow State University, Geographic faculty, Moscow, Russia
  • 3Foundation «National Intellectual Resource», Moscow, Russia
  • 4Rosneft Oil Company, Moscow, Russia
  • 5LLC «Arctic Research Center», Moscow, Russia

Abstract. The evolution of permafrost in the Kara shelf is reconstructed for the past 125 kyr. The work includes zoning of the shelf according to geological history, compiling sea-level and ground temperature scenarios within the distinguished zones, and forward modeling to evaluate the thickness of permafrost and the extent of frozen, cold and unfrozen rocks. The modeling results are correlated to the available field data and are presented as geocryological maps. The formation of frozen, cold, and unfrozen rocks of the region is inferred to depend on the spread of ice sheets, sea level, and duration of shelf freezing and thawing periods.

Anatoliy Gavrilov et al.
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Short summary
The geocryological study of the Arctic shelf remains insufficient for economic activity. The article presents a study of its evolution by methods of math modeling of heat transfer in rocks. As a result, a model of the evolution and current state of the cryolithozone of the Kara shelf was created based on the materials of math modeling, form on ideas about the history of its geocryological development over the past 125 Kyr. Also, a geocryological map was compiled by linking model and field data.
The geocryological study of the Arctic shelf remains insufficient for economic activity. The...
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