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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-145
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-145
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 19 Jun 2019

Submitted as: research article | 19 Jun 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal The Cryosphere (TC).

Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations

Alice K. DuVivier1, Patricia DeRepentigny2,3, Marika M. Holland1, Melinda Webster4, Jennifer E. Kay2,5, and Don Perovich6 Alice K. DuVivier et al.
  • 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA
  • 2Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 3Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 4NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
  • 5Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 6Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA

Abstract. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this “New” Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) allow for understanding conditions that a floe will experience throughout the calendar year. These model tracks can assist with campaign planning, put into context a single year of observations, and provide guidance on how observations can help with model development. The modelled floe tracks show a Transpolar Drift trajectory is likely, providing guidance for coordinating satellite, airborne, and ground observations. However, there is a smaller possibility of high-risk tracks, including possible melt of the floe before the end of a calendar year. Because of high variability in the melt season sea ice conditions, we recommend in-situ sampling over a large range of ice conditions for a more complete understanding of how ice type or surface condition affect processes. We find that sea ice predictability emerges rapidly during the autumn freeze-up and anticipate that process-based observations during this period may help elucidate the processes leading to this change in predictability. Accurate seasonal cycle comparison of sea ice conditions between point-based observations a model requires the model to use a Lagrangian framework.

Alice K. DuVivier et al.
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Status: final response (author comments only)
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  • RC1: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Jul 2019 Printer-friendly Version
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Alice K. DuVivier et al.
Alice K. DuVivier et al.
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Short summary
In autumn 2019, a ship will be frozen into the Arctic sea ice for a year to study system changes. We analyze climate model data from a group of experiments and follow virtual sea ice floes throughout a year. The modeled sea ice conditions along possible tracks is highly variable. Observations that sample a wide range of sea ice conditions and represent the variety and diversity in possible conditions necessary for improving climate model parameterizations over all types of sea ice.
In autumn 2019, a ship will be frozen into the Arctic sea ice for a year to study system...
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