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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-191
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-191
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 21 Aug 2019

Submitted as: research article | 21 Aug 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal The Cryosphere (TC).

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Alice Barthel1, Cecile Agosta2, Christopher M. Little3, Tore Hatterman4,5, Nicolas C. Jourdain6, Heiko Goelzer7,8, Sophie Nowicki9, Helene Seroussi10, Fiammetta Straneo11, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle12 Alice Barthel et al.
  • 1Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
  • 2Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
  • 3Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
  • 4Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway
  • 5Energy and Climate Group, Department of Physics and Technology, The Arctic University – University of Tromsø, Norway
  • 6Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
  • 7Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
  • 8Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
  • 9NASA GSFC, Cryospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, USA
  • 10Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
  • 11Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • 12British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts standalone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a sub-set of CMIP5 AOGCMs (3 core + 3 targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on: (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations, and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean sub-surface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical constraints, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top 3 CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica, and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6, but can be adapted for other applications.

Alice Barthel et al.
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Status: open (until 23 Oct 2019)
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Alice Barthel et al.
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Dataset for ISMIP6 CMIP5 model selection A. Barthel, C. Agosta, T. Hatterman, N. Jourdain, and T. Bracegirdle https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3367347

Alice Barthel et al.
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Short summary
We compare existing coupled climate models to select a total of 6 models to provide forcing to the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet simulations of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6). We select models based on: (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations, and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century.
We compare existing coupled climate models to select a total of 6 models to provide forcing to...
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