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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-299
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-299
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: brief communication 10 Dec 2019

Submitted as: brief communication | 10 Dec 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal The Cryosphere (TC).

Brief communication: Arctic sea ice thickness internal variability and its changes under historical and anthropogenic forcing

Guillian Van Achter1, Leandro Ponsoni1, François Massonnet1, Thierry Fichefet1, and Vincent Legat2 Guillian Van Achter et al.
  • 1Georges Lemaitre Center for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
  • 2Institute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering, Applied Mechanics and Mathematics, Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium

Abstract. We use model simulations from the CESM1-CAM5-BGC-LE dataset to characterise the Arctic sea ice thickness internal variability both spatially and temporally. These properties, and their stationarity, are investigated in three different contexts: (1) constant, pre-industrial, (2) historical and (3) projected conditions. Spatial modes of variability show highly stationary patterns regardless of the forcing and mean state. A temporal analysis reveals two peaks of significant variability and despite a non-stationarity on short time-scales, they remain more or less stable until the first half of the 21st century, where they start to change once summer ice-free events occur, after 2050.

Guillian Van Achter et al.
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Short summary
We document the spatio-temporal internal variability of Arctic sea ice thickness and its changes under anthropogenic forcing which is key to understanding, and eventually predicting, the evolution of sea ice in response to climate change. The patterns of sea ice thickness variability remain more or less stable during pre-industrial, historical and future periods, despite a non-stationarity on short time-scales. These patterns start to change once Arctic summer ice-free events occur, after 2050.
We document the spatio-temporal internal variability of Arctic sea ice thickness and its changes...
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